Model
Staking fund portfolio: the range of outcomes, not one forecast
A Monte Carlo model of a staking portfolio shows how wide the range of fund results really is, even with a profitable roster.
The task
Give a staking fund an honest picture of a half-year: not one expected profit number, but the spread of outcomes, the chance of a losing period and how makeup behaves.
The data
No client data: a model with stated assumptions — 30 players, 500 tournaments a month each, $15 average buy-in, 8% average ROI with 6 points of spread between players, SD of 7 buy-ins per tournament, 50/50 profit split.
The approach
- Each run draws a ROI for every player, then simulates monthly results with the given volume and variance.
- Losses build makeup; wins first clear makeup, then the rest is split with the fund.
- 5,000 runs give the distribution of fund profit, makeup at the horizon and the month players clear it.
- The same model runs in your browser with your own inputs.
Results in numbers
Source: DataSense8 staking fund model, default inputs, seed 42
Change the inputs and rerun it yourself: staking fund portfolio model →
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